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Technology Stocks : ITRA INTRAWARE
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To: buckhead26 who wrote (489)12/17/1999 12:56:00 AM
From: mark cox  Read Replies (2) of 937
 
Hey Buckhead, according to the CEO your revenue projections are probably low by a factor of 4.

You estimated revenues two years from now at $528 million which would be fantastic in my book, however the CEO stated the following:

"A couple of billion [dollars] in sales a couple of years from now wouldn't be ridiculous," says company president and CEO Peter Jackson, who says profitability is about two years away.

I computed this the other day and it would require a revenue growth rate of 45% from consecutive quarter to consecutive quarter for 8 quarters. That would be a linear rate. This would equate to an annualized growth rate of 340%.

I also estimated that any company that grew revenues from say $100 million to $2 billion in just 2 years would be awarded a PSR of at least 40 and with the current shares outstanding it would give ITRA a share price of $3,319.00 without splits.

I am quite sure that to sustain that kind of growth that it will require some considerable capital. Therefore we will see at least one secondary offering over the next 2 years which would bring my estimated share price down some.

Before anyone even thinks of responding to me with a post that contains the word hype in it. I didn't come up with the $2 billion figure. The CEO did and he knows what is probable better than anyone on the planet.

A PSR of 40 would be conservative in this type of market as well.

So anyone who might be wondering if they should sell some soon to lock in profits think about what will be happening over the coming years. You sell now you make pennies.

Mark
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