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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.705

-0.4%

10:42 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (3060)	12/17/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) of 34857

Let's make this real simple. Motorola and Lucent had 4-6 times bigger mobile network market share than Nokia a couple of years ago. They believed that the best way to keep that lead was to launch a big R&D effort into CDMA and let GSM more or less roll along on its own momentum. Nokia took an opposite tack. Now, half a decade later, that fivefold market share advantage both Mot and Lu had over Nokia has evaporated. Sit silently for a moment and contemplate on this development. Do you have any idea how unlikely this development was? How tough it is to make operators switch equipment vendors? Or convince new operatorsto take a chance? Revisionism? Personal grudges? I am trying to comprehend how Nokia's global network market share can quintuple in a short span of time. The combined population of Sweden and Finland is 13 million - yet Ericsson and Nokia have 45-55% of the world's mobile phone and mobile network market share. Plus 70% of the GPRS market share. Do you comprehend how profoundly strange these numbers are? They can't be explained by mere random shifts in market share competition. In my opinion the numbers speak of profound strategic miscalculations of Mot and Lu. They speak of disastrous incompetence and/or inability to come to grips with global markets. They speak of the permanent damage that championing national standards have caused on Japanese and American equipment manufacturers. "It is hard for me to understand how you can believe that an expertise in CDMA will hurt these manufacturers." Is it that hard? God knows that Motorola's pool of engineering brainpower is not unlimited. Every company needs to prioritize. And when they put resources into wrong places, the company loses. Take a look at the market share develompent between 1992-1999. It's sometimes good to step back and look at several years of competition and then stop to think. Tero

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