Most industry reports on wireless infrastructure are truly horrible, DataQwest is particularly bad. Lucent entered the wireless business about 1990 - remember, AT&T thought so highly of the cellular business that it gave it away to the RBOCs at divestiture in 1983-84. I don't think that they had any position in analog - AT&T's analog cellular network was almost entirely Ericsson equipment. So, LU and NOK have a very similar profile - neither played any role in the 1st generation of cellular, both took considerable share in the 2nd - NOK in GSM, LU in CDMA and TDMA (remember until the spin out in 1996, T had little interest in international markets - this is the big reason why Lucent was behind in GSM, not a blind love of CDMA). Nonetheless, CDMA has been a big home run for Lucent (60% worldwide market share), TDMA remains strong (ask AT&T why they are pulling Ericsson gear in NY, LA, Dallas and Houston in favor of LU). LU has a excellent position vis a vis W-CDMA and CDMA 2000 (talk to DoCoMo) - vs. NOK and ERIC, LU is the one that has experience building carrier class packet networks.
My forecast shows LU and NOK gaining share, Ericsson share flat to declining, NT declining and MOT declining. I'm sure you see it differently, but vive la difference. |
