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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 684.83

+0.6%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Merritt who wrote (35382)	12/18/1999 1:10:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) of 99985

I just ran my charts and am amazed at the number of over bought signals I am getting. I know everything is over bought but the signals are just a momentum shift away from triggering sells. Unfortunately I don't have index signals to go with them for the most part so a down week is far from guaranteed but it isn't looking good for the home team. <ggg> I think we are within weeks of a major downshift which upsets me slightly as I took a small long position at the close today since I showed the TYX at resistance so a bond rally was a high probability next week which I hoped would help the market. Now I am wondering if the buying in the bonds might be a flight to quality. I have to admit I am not too worried since I know easy Al will be covering my backside and any market weakness will be promptly met with billions in fresh rocket fuel. <ng> Banks are approaching a critical juncture on the daily charts and the weeklies are starting to get to the seriously nervous area. I get a kick out of GE rallying while the banks are getting hammered especially since GE is basically just an over grown bank now. All thier manufacturing etc doesn't make the money in that company, it is the financial section that makes or breaks their earnings. Mean while the funds are selling banks so they can buy GE. Guess they want all their eggs in one basket for the slippery walk down the rocky hill. I will have to take a look around at a few other things before I can say for sure what is going on but it isn't looking real great. First glance says we either shift sectors, try to push the old favorites a little more for one last push to give us great put entries or else we tank when Al raises the bias. I firmly believe we get a bias shift to tightening this meeting then a raise or double raise in February depending on how much the NASDAQ can rally when the Fed starts draining the liquidity about halfway through January as they do every year. If the NASDAQ tries to defy gravity into next year, I think AL might cross his legs and not be so easy. He has to be fuming that the liquidity he is dishing out to avert a Y2K nightmare is instead going into wild specualtion gambles on earnings proimises that can't be proven for hundreds of years. Good Luck, Lee

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