Thanks, AmyJ (and all) <I'll add a few items to your list...>
I can see that it was mostly lack of clarity on my part. I will try to improve. And in response...
>You asked Paul, not the thread<
my fault - I was specifically hoping for his comment as a presumably-former employee, but assumed that others would also jump in
>"based on the ramp-down of employee stock option runrates"<
I will never post "inside" information (I don't have any). But it is well known that Intel has been reducing the employee stock option runrate - that is, the standard number of shares granted each year (exersisable 5 years later). The combination of that reduction, along with the run-up in stock price <ggg> has made the options vesting in '00, '01 the "last good ones". So many employees with greater than 12 years of service are considering leaving after exercising those (in April).
>"Possible factors - reduced payroll costs, blip-up in stock dilution rate due to options being exercised, loss of experienced personnel"
I have no clue what you are talking about. If this is about the industry issue which is generic to all companies, i.e. "loss of personnel due to vesting" of stock options, well nearly every high-tech company has this issue to deal with. What's new? I really don't know what you mean when you refer to reduced payroll costs since Intel is growing.<
What MAY be new is that the rate of personnel loss will be temporarily very high during this time. Most of my buddies are thinking about leaving. On the other hand, since most of these employees have high salaries and will be replaced with comparatively lower paid "just-out-of-schoolers", overall payroll costs may fall.
>RE: "Actually, as one of those likely to split on one of these Aprils"
The purpose of that piece of information isn't clear. Also, I rather doubt it's a good idea for an inside employee to predict the potential split of their company's stock, if this is what you were doing. <
<ggg> sorry, I meant split as in "leave the company"; obviously, a very poor choice of slang in this context
>RE: "INTC represents approx 125% of networth"
This statement doesn't make sense to me.<
Entire holdings are INTC, PLUS margined to buy more.
>RE: "its a serious question"
A serious question requires more articulation. What exactly is your question and the framework for the question? It's hard to help, when it's not clear.<
You are absolutely right. My articulation fell far short and I appreciate your time. Thanks for helping even though it was hard.
A restatement of the question for those who had the patience to wade through this:
Is it likely that the increased departure rate of experienced personnel starting in 4/00 will have a measurable effect on Intel's ability to deliver, and therefore on stock price? Or will it just be "noise".
An analogy - when the graduating seniors of a state championship football team are gone, does the coach win the next year?
I think this is an interesting question, since AMD will certainly NOT be experiencing this problem. <ggg>
dbf |
