Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank

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To: j g cordes who wrote (75887)	12/18/1999 8:07:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) of 120523

j.g. cordes: Well Homestead.Com finally managed an upload of some of my charts. Anyone who visited my web site before I shut it down has probably seen some of these charts. Of course, now they have been updated...<gg> My OMC, TYX, XAU & DYX Combination Chart - Monthly Semi-log marketdirectionanalysis.homestead.com My OMC (Overall Market Composite) Index reveals that a bull market has been in progress since 1974. My OMC Index is a representation of the major exchanges composite indexes and is similarly weighted. My OMC & VGY Combination Chart - Weekly Semi-log marketdirectionanalysis.homestead.com Keep in mind when viewing the OMC Index that since 94, the move up as measured by the major indexes (weighted toward the big cap issues) has been driven higher at an increased rate. This increased rate of climb is even obvious on a semi-log chart. Semi-log charts display a more realistic view by projecting charts on a percentage relationship. I have noticed that since I started promoting semi-log charts on SI over the last year, more and more "I get paid for my stuff gurus" have been referring to semi-log charts as well. Now notice how the VGY (Value Line Geometric) Index reveals the overall market has actually been in retreat since 1998. I don't think a new bull market is going to begin at these levels. First, we are going to see a correction of the high flyers that have propelled the indexes. Around 70% plus, of the issues on the NYSE, are now below where they were a year ago. I do not know how much of an impact we will see on these issues when the high flyers correct. It really depends on how dramatic the pullback actually is and how much panic sets in. Remember these high flyers or glamour stocks have had a disproportionate effect to the upside on the indexes and will have the same disproportionate effect to the downside of these indexes as well. My COMP (Dow Jones 65 Composite) Index - Weekly Semi-log Chart marketdirectionanalysis.homestead.com Note the major jump in volume since the last medium-term bottom. Note the volume spike on Friday. Is this distribution or are the Big Boys leaving the NASDAQ hi-tech issues? I am going to be completely bowled over if the market as measured by the NYA and COMPX is at the threshold of a "new" bull market. I suspect Favors is about to fall out of favor soon...<gg> I think in hind site for most, as the market plays out, Friday may well prove to have been a significant day in the Market. Just a GUT FEEL...<gg> Of course, I could be completely wrong and the new hi-tech driven productivity expectations could drive PE's exponentially from here. Regards, LG PS: If this post is off topic and out of line, someone let me know and I will not post again on this topic on this thread! Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions.

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