physicdh on Yahoo,
Let me try to respond to your post on Yahoo.
1) I am not, nor do I know, DC on RB. I read RB as well as Yahoo. There are a couple of good posters on RB who are probably worth following. There are also some good posters on Yahoo, but Yahoo's policy of letting people have multiple handles really destroys the quality of their threads. The Yahoo XICO thread is already starting to go down hill. My guess is that some of the new posters bought the stock on this latest run (look at when they created their handles) and are now pissed because they are under water. And then you have the "day traders" "claiming" to be making a whopping $500 a day trading XICO. I am happy for them, but, like who cares? People are making millions in this market!
2) My posting activity is very limited. If you click on my name you will see that 99% of my posts are for XICO. I am involved with a lot of big name tech stocks, but don't post on those threads because I can't add anything of value. Those stocks are covered by the street and there is little, if anything, an individual who is not an insider or working in the industry can provide. Since I am neither, I read but don't post.
3) I post a lot on XICO because they didn't have coverage and because of my long involvement with the company, I think I can provide insight. But that is all changing. XICO has a great firm covering them now and I expect they will get more coverage. So you probably won't hear me on the cc anymore. However, I will be listening. The fact of the matter is that the analysts at the major firms get more info than any of us "little investors" could ever expect to get.
This is exactly the subject of the SEC's latest efforts regarding selective disclosure. I really think the total elimination of selective disclosure is a pipe dream. These analysts meet with and call the company all the time. In fact before they issue a research report, they will talk with the company to get their approval on the numbers. So, the only way you would have a chance to eliminate selective disclosure is to prevent the company from talking to the street in any way other than a cc make available to all. And if you think that is going to happen, I have some swamp land I would like to sell you.
4) As for the unusual price activity you mentioned, it is the result of a large block seller (>50K shares)and/or just sloppy selling. I consider sloppy selling to be a market order to sell or the continuous hitting of the declining bids by a large seller (10k - 50k shares).
If someone has a large block to sell, their broker will usually shop it on the street by calling around other mm's looking for a buyer. Well guess what, now the other mm's know that there is merchandise for sale. So what do they do? They get the hell out of the way and start dropping their bids. Once others get wind of the block for sale, they get the hell out of dodge also. The stock starts dropping until a buyer for the block is found. You then see the big print and guess what? All the bargain hunters and day traders want the stock in a hurry now that the overhang is gone. Bingo, the stock gaps back up on thin air as the mm's are not going to let the little guy back in cheap.
This is exactly what happened the other day when we went down to 11 1/4 at the open and then rocketed up in less than 1/2 hour. In fact, one friend of mine told me he put a limit order in at 12 to buy and they blew right by him with no fill. Another friend told me he put in a market order to buy when the stock was 11 1/2 and got a fill at 12 1/4.
Bottom line is if you want to own more of this stock, stick in some limit orders 1 to 1 1/2 below the current price and you might get lucky.
BTW, this process works in reverse, when a large block buyer or a sloppy buyer shows up. This could have been the case this Friday when the stock had a sudden run up to 14 and closed back near 13.
A lot of times the trading desk of the buyer's or seller's brokerage firm may be taking the other side of the trade. In that case if there was a buyer, the trading desk would short the stock to the buyer and if there was a seller the trading desk would buy the stock from the seller. After the trade is done, the firm's trader now has a vested interest to either have the stock drop, so he can cover his short or have the stock go up so he can unload the stock he bought.
So why would they do this? Well they do have access to order flow. They may be aware of a buyer or have some reason to believe that the stock is going higher, and when the seller shows up, are willing to buy stock from the seller, knowing that they can unload to a buyer at higher prices. On the other hand they may be aware of a seller or have some reason to believe that the stock is going down, and when the buyer shows up, are willing to short the stock to a buyer, knowing they can cover from a seller later at lower prices.
5)Finally, all of this is fun to watch and talk about, but lets not forget that the real question we need an answer to is whether this company is going to start growing the top line. If they can convince the street that they can be a $500mm company sometime in the next 2-3 years, then I think Raphie will indeed have the last laugh.
Raphie told me once he would not be happy until the stock was above its all time high of 29 and change. Is this the year he is happy?
I am betting yes! |
