Interesting to speculate what a pandemic scare could do to this stock, assuming they ever get their application filed, that is:
Next Flu Pandemic in U.S. Could Kill 200,000
1999 DEC 13 - (NewsRx.com) -- The next influenza pandemic to hit the United States could kill more than 200,000 people, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) figures.
Researcher M.I. Meltzer and colleagues from the CDC's National Center for Infectious Diseases estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, the researchers estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses ("The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention," Emerging Infectious Diseases, 1999;5(5):659-671).
Patients at high risk (15 percent of the population) would account for approximately 84 percent of all deaths.
The estimated economic impact would be US $71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society.
"At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated," Meltzer et al. wrote. "At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25 percent, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated."
The researchers concluded that vaccinating 60 percent of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.
The corresponding author for this study is M.I. Meltzer, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Clifton Rd, Mail Stop C12, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA.
This article was prepared by Antiviral Weekly editors from staff and other reports. Copyright 1999, Antiviral Weekly via NewsRx.com
Peter
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