physicdh on Yahoo,
Just read RB. I think (hope) DC means a management buyout vs. a spin-off. In a spin-off, we shareholders would become owners of the fab, something that doesn't interest me in the least bit. You know how I feel about that damn fab!
While I have said the $1.01 loss for Q4 appears high, especially if they have a buyer (either management or a third party), I really don't care about it, other than I want it done!! The write-off will be the final act of Xicor's dreadful past and it will put that past to bed once and for all.
The future price of Xicor's stock is going to be based on what the street thinks they can do going forward beginning Jan 1, 2000.
What is really hard to figure is the $0.11 for Q1 2000. As I indicated in a previous post, there is no way it is right, if they take a restructuring charge in Q4.
Look - they made $0.05 in Q3 with the fab inefficiencies and gave guidance on the cc for higher sales and better gross margin in Q4. So, I say that means $0.08 (excluding the restructuring charge and including the fab inefficiencies) is a reasonable number. The fab inefficiencies are in my opinion at least $0.07. So with no growth, Q1 2000 (without the fab inefficiencies) would be $0.15. I think no growth in Q1 2000 is unreasonable. Therefore, based on what I know now, my rock bottom untaxed estimate for Q1 2000 is $0.18.
Therefore, unless
1)they are going to go wild on R&D or SG&A expenses
2) the $0.11 is fully taxed, or
3)I am missing something big time
the $0.11 in Q1 2000 would mean a reduction in real operations and how could SNDV initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a $25 target if they thought the company was going to experience a sequential decline in operations in Q1 2000?
Given what I know at this time, my take is that this is vintage Raphie low balling so he can blow the Q1 2000 estimates away and SNDV is in on it.
However, if I am right, after they release Q4 in mid Jan 2000, everyone is going to know that $0.11 for Q1 2000 is a joke and the stock will pop.
If for some reason it doesn't, we may have to wait until the company actually reports Q1 2000 in April for the pop.
Either way, it pops in 2000.
Since we really don't know what is going on and I have made my position on this as clear as I can, I really don't want to discuss it anymore. Lets wait for the report and the numbers and take it from there.
I am very excited about what 2000 may bring for XICO. I hope the overall market cooperates.
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