49r,
I have to admit that I don't believe I've ever seen you apoligize to anyone before, so your post has left me somewhat stunned, especially given your previous take on the repercussions of Y2K. The entire issue seems to bring the worst out in everyone, myself included, as we react emotionally, rather than rationally. However, I have to say that reading your excellent post was probably the highlight of my evening... Seriously.
You are essentially correct in everything you have reported about the grid, the US financial system, as well as National Security (Nukes.. etc).
And your take on the international arena is also correct. Asian governments, with the exception of Singapore and Australia, have been loath to deal with Y2K adequately. My sources, which stem from those working in the "belly of the beast", are telling me that we can expect disruptions to occur over the course of several months in Indonesia, Malaysia, and possibly even Japan.
Officials at the US State Dept have really tried to reach out to these govt's with offers of assistance with regard to assessment and contingency planning, it has been evident that their counterparts in these nations have shown little willingness to pick up the ball and run with it over the past 12 months. However, they do a fantastic job of jawboning the issue.. saying much and doing little. There simply is no reward for anyone taking the initiative in dealing with this issue. It is seen as a career terminator, especially if these govt officials become popular scapegoats for their nations unreadiness.
There are some concerns that Y2K disruptions could ignite another round of "Asian Contagion" if cooler heads aren't maintained. Also, it seems that initial plans for the US to prepare for emergency response operations with various nations have fallen upon deaf ears. The US govt simply doesn't have the resouces available to help every nation.
And while there had been some discussions of dividing up Asia between the US, Australia, Canada, and other developed members of APEC, action on such response plans has lagged and essentially died in committee.
But what we SHOULD WORRY ABOUT are terrorist activities, such has been highlighted with the arrest this week of a suspected member of Bin Laden's organization. He was caught trying to cross the Canadian border into the US, and it is likely that others actually have succeeded in entering the US and are probably preparing as we speak to explode bombs in various cities here.
Again, I'm glad that you found a source that is credible enough in your eyes that you can feel a sense of relief that we'll not looking at a Mad Maxx scenario. I've known this was the case for some months now and I wish others would be rational enough to realize it as well.
But the devil is in the details and this interconnected world we live in will suffer some amount of disruptions, both economic and political.
We disagree on many things Rose... but it is heartening that we have found common ground in this area.
Regards,
Ron |
