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Biotech / Medical : BIOMIRA RESEARCH (BIOM)
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To: chirodoc who wrote (22)12/19/1999 2:48:00 AM
From: chirodoc   of 72
 
Merrill-Lynch estimates

The problem I have with Merrill's projection is that they only project C$101 million in 2003 (C$28 million in 2002).
My problem with their projection is that if you use the most advanced current treatment for metastatic breast cancer on the market (ie Herceptin by Genentech), then you have seen
their 1st year 12 month sales at $220 million. Now many of you know the details on Herceptin... 1.) Safety= side effects include possiblity of conjestive heart failure among other whereas Theratope has shown no serious side effects to date 2.) BR cancer indication= indicated for 25-33% of the br cancer population whereas Theratope is indicated for 90+% of the population
3.) Herceptin has resulted in a 4 month increase in survival for the metastatic population tested. A Canadian doctor referred to this 4 month life extension as the largest breakthrough in metastatic breast cancer treatment in 40 years (I understand this was a
900 patient study also)... but Theratope may extend survival by years for a similar population.
In short, I appreciate your post. I'm always curious as to how professionals value a biotech. However, I've looked at this company in great detail and cannot see how Theratope wouldn't generate 12 month projected sales at $300- 400 million right out of the gate... I don't say I'm right. I only say that if Theratope shows an approximate 30 month survival vs. a 9 month control, then I would see a 3 year ramp up to $600 million... and that's without it's use in colorectal cancer where Ph2 was also very positive.
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