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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: orkrious who wrote (23799)12/19/1999 10:08:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (3) of 25960
 
Jay, the question is how many new 300 fab will be built and equipped over the next two years. I doubt that number will be much greater than 10 a year, if at all.

I am still bullish on CYMI, but unlike the majority of the thread which argue "when" in 2000 CYMI will reach $100/share, I think it has at best, a chance of reaching about $85 and will be down hill from there, into another cyclical bear in 2001 for the semis. That is a best case scenario, my more rational scenario is for a high of $65 or so, which will be a PE of about 40 to my next year earnings estimates of $1.60 (which is by itself optimistic and above current consensus of $1.31).

I realize that the "list" of "prediction" for the timing of $100/share includes me as saying 2001, however, my vote was no $100 for the next two years.

Zeev
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