Jay, I am notoriously poor at catching actual bottoms, but if you follow my comments, I told that shorter in our midst to stop shorting at $10 (on the way up) and cover all bets when we had that small slip back to $10. Since then I have been positive on the segment, and companies have been announcing quite a lot of new fabs (but far from the announcement rate at the peak in 1995 or so?). I have been in and out of CYMI since 16 (yes, I did miss the first $10 bucks of this move), and most of them were pretty good moves for me. The last from $30 to $45 was a nice 50%, and I am back in as of last week at $39 (ya, missed that mini bottom as well). My target is a new high at about $52 to $55 for this move, then I ponder again. This stock has been quite nice to me, thank you.
By 2001 we will be well into the third or fourth year of this semi recovery, and unless the cycle has been abolished, it will be time to start and look for another down turn.
Zeev |
