Thoughts on possible sector meltdown in next few months:
I open my SI personal mailbox this morning and see an apology from the folks at SI for the "growing pains" they are suffering. No kidding! In the past couple of weeks, there's been nearly a half-dozen occasions when my post was rejected because the server was overloaded.
So this reminded me to open up my "SIrejection" folder and repost everything this weekend. Below is one such post [in reponse to a question by Tony], forgive me if it somehow gets re-posted. Addendum: yeah, Tony, like I said, I have no great market-timing skills, but I'm feeling bearish after January ends, so I'll be preparing for a meltdown, whether or not it actually comes. A new BusinessWeek article quotes Amerindo Technology Fund (ATCHX)'s Vilar (he's displayed uncanny knack for timing the Net sector) as saying a 50% correction is likely to come Q2 1999.
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Yeah, I guess we think alike. So we shall sink or swim together.
I have no plans to buy into the Jacob Fund. I kinda like picking my own Net stocks these days so I can kick myself when I make a mistake instead of wanting to kick a manager that my leg can't reach.
Yeah, the tricky part is *finding great growth-story companies before the rest of the market does*. I believe short-term price swings are unpredictable, that those who are successful at market-timing owe it more to luck than skill.
For example Oracle is my perennial favorite stock, my first purchase in 1997. I bought it after a crash, but then it continued crashing, I sold too early during the recovery. It crashed again 1.5 years later and I made the same damn stupid mistake. Now it's up a bazillion % and deservedly so. Once I find a great company, I should set it on cruise-control for a while and only trade part of my position if my confidence in the market is shaken and keep an eye out for fundamental changes.
So I'm lucky so far, today my big loser was Ebay (-7%) and my big gainers were Citrix (+15%) and Infospace (+17%). I got in early for what I thought were great companies, and things have worked out. But money doesn't grow on trees so I need to see the forest for the trees and not get caught up with emotional "exuberance". So I took some $ off the table instead of joining in on the Net party. I don't want to be the last one at the party and the last to leave.
Anyway, I think I went off on a tangent there. In terms of mutual funds, I don't have much to add beyond the earlier article I mentioned that interviewed me:
cbs.marketwatch.com
Anyway, I can't analyze a portfolio I can't see. Though he's divided into 4 segments, I feel he may go heavy in small-cap content plays, not enough B2B and global for my taste. Despite the theglobe.com debacle, I think Jacob's sharp ... but definitely fallible. Kevin Landis of Firsthand Funds (I hold TIFQX) is sharp (I don't know much about his new ecommerce fund), also Jim Callinan (?) of RS Internet Fund (it just opened, will have hot IPOs and a great boost from them, but I can't scrounge up $5,000 minimum without selling stock). Steve Harmon of e-harmon.com, CNBC, SI, is interesting reading, as is Jim Seymour of TheStreet.com. And I keep on top of market trends by seeing what Forrester Research and the like have to say...
- Netconductor.com
>>Tony Harper wrote:
Gee, I'm glad I'm not the only one that can't time the market. I read all these posts where everyone was out
before the drop, but me, and were in at less than half the price I paid.
I plan to lighten up some too, but I can only do a little. I always pick the wrong stocks to sell. At least if I sell
now the stocks will rocket a 100% or so and I can call it my XMAS present to everyone.
Think I'm pulling completly out of WWWFX. Can't decide if I should roll it into the new Jacobs fund or just hold
the cash for the INET sale in Feb???. Any thoughts? Tony |
