Hi Craig M. Newmark; I followed your advice and took a good sized reading sample of Paul's postings, and I am still quite unimpressed. Admittedly, I have not gone back and read his posts from 3 years ago, but maybe he was a mentally younger man back then, I think his current posts are what are of interest now.
The vast majority of Paul's posts are one liners, devoid of content. They are basically the kind of thing that you would hear from a slightly drunken upper management type at a cocktail party. They are always biased in favor of his (ex) employer, and they tend towards name calling. They certainly don't provide much in the way of useful information. People who listened to his posts on the unavailability of the Athlon this past summer were very likely to have missed an easy double in AMD.
Since September, there have been only a few truly monumental changes to the x86 CPU world. Rambus fell apart. Intel "AMDed" the coppermine launch. AMD announced a likely profit for 4Q. These were the block buster news stories that made stocks move fast. I went back and looked at Paul's posts for September, to see if he provided any useful predictions...
As one would expect of an ex Intel big wig, Paul gets rumors from dubious sources about the problems at AMD. This past September, these rumors were about copper at Dresden, and about engineers leaving the AMD program. Examples:
My guess is that AMD's copper "play" will be an embarrassing double fault.#reply-11125312
I think you should brace yourself for some disappointing news about AMD's Copper program - and Dresden.#reply-11124175
This information, while of interest, is pretty much inconsequential. Development projects always have little disasters, (any engineer knows this for sure), and engineers (of my generation, anyway,) change jobs. Not useful information about AMD, and provided at a time when AMD stock turned out to have been available at a bargain basement price.
Re the Coppermine introduction, here is what Paul said: By the time October 24 rolls around, you'll be able to buy 700 (+) MHz Coppermine machines at your favorite vendors.#reply-11144073
Intel announced a two month delay - and will ship the Coppermine with only a ONE MONTH delay.#reply-11298407
Re AMD's positive earnings surprise for 3Q and 4Q99, Paul said: Or, if you don't own any shares, sell UNCOVERED CALLS at a strike price of around 22 1/2 to $27 1/2 - but be prepared for a possible (but highly UNLIKELY) POSITIVE surprise. #reply-11149667
My guess is that Q4 may be a real SHOCKER - in a negative sense - for AMD investors.#reply-11261260
Re the Athlon, which is looking to be one hell of a sweet product for AMD: You're welcome - because the AMD AthLATE so far has captured ZERO - 0 - NADA - market share. #reply-11200138
Re the Rambus fiasco: Kash - Re: "How come nobody's gonna have Rambus PC's to go at the Camino launch on 9/27? Now PCs will be available within 30 days of launch"
That 30 days is STILL 60 days FASTER than the ATHLATE PC delay following that brilliant JUNE Launch !#reply-11278578
At that same time, it was obvious to many engineers in the memory community that Direc Rambus was going to have reliability problems. I posted to that effect quite a bit on the RMBS thread, and well in advance of when Intel had to cancel the Camino launch. Third parties noted that my predictions were uncannily accurate: Shades of Bilow #reply-11348939
In sum, Paul's posts have provided very little useful technical information, stock price predictive information, and, in addition, have tended towards personal insult.
As an example of personal insult, note that he cannot even type the names of the people he disagrees with correctly. Basically, he shows zero respect for the other posters here.
Paul is a has been.
-- Carl
P.S. I noticed that your post didn't give any links to Paul posts showing him being civil, admitting his errors, having good predictions, or criticizing Intel. It only takes a few moments to collect up some great posts from Paul, hows about it? Lets see what gems of wisdom have fallen from his keyboard recently. In any case, his predictive abilities are zero. |
