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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.640-0.4%3:59 PM EST
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To: Mr.Fun who wrote (3065)12/20/1999 6:33:00 AM
From: Mika Kukkanen  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
Mr Fun: I suppose we all have forecasts and predictions. There are other rumblings within the industry with a number of alliances that haven't been made too public. My own current non-technical analysis for future mobile networks is in the following ratios (however wildly inaccurate as it would be hard to gauge at the current stage). For a laugh though here it is:
Ericcson - 14
NEC - 8
Nortel - 7
Lucent - 6
Nokia - 4
Motorola - 3
Fujistu - 2
Matsushita - 1
Siemens - 1
Samsung - 1
Others: - 1

Now these ratios are based mostly on current test deals, although not necessarily orders (I know of only 5 strategic supplier deals and some of those are outside chances for actually winning a 3G license). The Nortel French deal (Cegetel) -mentioned in an earlier post- i didn't think was public yet, (although I knew of it and a few more I may add from other vendors) the only one I thought truly public was for DoCoMo.

Lucent's aggrement with One.Tel does indeed involve massive vendor financing. However, One.Tel (Rupert Murdoch's company) has no current networks, but as mentioned in a previous post will be bidding for licenses in UK and other Western European countries. Reckon he will fail in the UK. Having said that, if he does get a couple in Euroland then it is a big feather in Lucent's cap.

Other things that will make it hard for predicting is the JIMM (a rather important operator alliance, along with others) and the multitude of vendor alliances going on.

Just a little fun to be thinking of when trying to predict the future mobile infrastructure market (all based on facts BTW).

M
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