Five-year outlook
By Robert Henkel
Semiconductor Business News
(12/16/99, 12:50:19 PM EDT)
Look for global IC business
to do even better next year
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZ.--IC Insights Inc. is out with its first cut at next year's IC market forecast--and it's a bullish one.
The annual increase is expected to be a healthy 23% in 2000. That would compare with a 17% rise in 1999 and a dip of 9% in 1998, the market researcher says.
While the electronic systems business is forecast to be stronger in 2000 than it was in 1999, IC Insights believes that IC unit shipments in 2000 will run at the same growth rate as they did in 1999 -- 14% annually. This will be due partly, it says, to the inventory overhang accumulated in late 1999 that will be used in early 2000.
Average selling prices will continue to improve next year, IC Insights believes, rising 8% as compared with a 3% growth this year and a dip of 9% in 1998.
All four IC regional markets are expected to rebound in 1999, according to the market researcher. Japan, which fell 20% this year, is expected to show a 22% growth rate. The rest of the world (ROW) has shaken off the effects of its economic collapse as least as far as the IC business is concerned, and will show a 27% increase in 1999, IC Insights predicts. About one-third of the increase in these two markets, however, will be due to currency strengthening against the U.S. dollar, it notes.
The Americas market will show a 13% increase in revenues in 1999, as compared to the 10% dip it took in 1998. Europe was flat in 1998, but will have a 9% growth rate this year.
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