I have noticed some people have very mypoic goals of $9,10,11 for HDD. As a suggestion, I would suggest that people completely ignore the price of the stock, but rather, focus on disk drive pricing and Quantum's overall profitability.
Commodity cycles generally last 18-24 months. For instance, the current semiconductor upswing began in January 1999. Thus I would consider semiconductor stocks an excellent investment for at least 9 more months. On that same note, I believe that this quarter's HDD conference call will confirm that the trough of the disk drive cycle was last summer and that the sector has been in a strengthening upswing since then. Dogs like Western Digital have clouded the restructuring gains that gems like Quantum have made.
Whether it be PVR, MP3, or the simple supply and demand equation that will firm disk drive pricing, it pretty much makes we sick to the stomach that HDD trades less than $2 above cash value and below book.
As a trader, it has killed me to hold HDD for the last two days and see it do nothing since the MXTR announcement. But I can do nothing but follow my gut instinct on this one.
2000 will be the year for HDD. $600 million market cap is sick. Expect no less than a 5 bagger IMHO. Don't worry about the price of the stock, the herd will come in and be in for as long as the pricing remains firm.
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