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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 74.38

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To: telecomguy who wrote (30510)	12/21/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Telecomguy, You make a set of points that all telecom vendors are making. Fortunately for them they indeed do see the threat. I find it odd that you don't. Tell me ONE major Carrier who is using Cisco technology to run IP Telephony END-TO-END right at the gateway level. Tell me one major carrier that had an all digital network prior to 1975. Times change... as does technology. IP telephony is just a toddler. Network churn will happen. The players have no idea what they are getting into when you are dealing with REALTIME voice conversation where small issues like Latency, Lost Packets, Network Congestion, QoS (Quality of Service), Network mgmt, and 99.99% Network UPTIME rears it's ugrly REALITY CHECK into all these ridiculous PC based and router based IP telephony pretenders. Interesting opinion but I think the networking vendors understand the challenges all too well. Go back and look at your issues list and take a look at what type of companies are leading innovation in each area. Don't you think there is a reason why the IP Telephony has less than 1/2 of 1% of all network voice traffic? Yes.... As I said - it's a toddler in comparison to TDM technology. Do you expect slow moving carriers to switch out their networks overnight? Heck if carriers began this effort when the first IP telephony products came to market they'd just be finishing up now. Give it time telecomguy. The question is will CSCO benefit from this churn..the answer is yes. And NT and LU will too. I think you're not giving the networking vendors any credit and that's one thing the exec's and LU and NT are not doing. Eventually IP telephony will rule OK... so you agree here. Don't you think CSCO will benefit? but the point is that the IP Telephony actually has the greatest advantage at the edge of the network once it starts replacing the old POTS 64K copper wire -- not at the Carrier level where everything is ALREADY DIGITAL and packetized. You've lost sight of other benefits of IP telephony - like contention. In todays networks you have to have a port for every user which has limited growth and proliferated area codes. You have number portability with IP which requires no technician. You have a more open architecture whereby ISV's can write unique applications for managing and providing new services to users. Finally, an IP network is less costly to maintain if one considers the price of a circuit switch service contract. I agree that circuit switches will not be going away anytime soon. But I think that IP telephony is real, I think it will be deployed going forward, and I think it offers a set a benefits that perhaps you're overlooking. OG

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