Gary,
As you probably surmised, I fully understand that call management software and VoIP gateways are completely separate products. To clarify:
1. Call management is an issue for Cisco in delivering true end-to-end solutions. The Telcordia software does dovetail with Intelligent Network applications delivered in HP's Service Control Point software. So, while semantically, HP is really delivering applications to the call management system which runs on HP's hardware platform. This is probably the weakest part of Cisco's voice offer.
2. While the 5300 gateway had numerous early wins, it has not been doing as well of late, as per Dell'oro, et al.. In the longer term, this gateway functionality will be integrated into other access equipment categories. We'll see how Cisco does with the Fibex box.
3. The 7R/E is a very complicated story, but I would argue that it is not "fundamentally still a circuit switch". The 7R/E module itself is actually fundamentally a packet switch. Because the 5E architecture is modular and distributed, the 7R/E can be attached, such that traffic coming into the system via a line card (say a DSL card) on the 7R/E need never traverse a circuit backplane. The good news is that traffic from all the POTS, ISDN, etc. cards on the original 5E shelves can be switched to the 7R/E module (yes, across the circuit backplane), and put into IP format. In the future, you can take the cards out of the original 5E shelves, pop them into 7R/E shelves, and voila - full gateway capability w/o the traffic ever moving through a circuit switch. As for this causing miscounting, Dell'oro does not include 7R/E in its gateway #s.
4. Just because you like a stock, doesn't mean you have to buy every story they sell. I am very comfortable that Cisco can continue to deliver against expectations, even though I do not think they are making as much progress in carrier accounts as many seem to think. Cisco's enterprise franchise is that strong. A sell-sider gave me an interesting piece of trivia. In the recorded history of business, only one company has ever delivered 20%+ sales growth for 15 consecutive years - IBM from the early 60s to the late 70s. Even Microsoft has failed. Cisco has now put up a decade of hypergrowth, give or take alittle depending if you count the years as a private company. Just food for thought. |
