Prudential's Acampora Bullish for 2000
Tuesday December 21 1:29 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ralph Acampora, chief technical strategist for
Prudential Securities and one of the stock market's prominent long-term bulls, said on Tuesday the Nasdaq could hit 5,000 next year as stocks see double-digit gains.
For the year 2000, Acampora expects the Dow Jones industrial average to move up to 13,500 to 14,000. If it hits the top of his range, that would be a 25.6 percent gain over Monday's closing level.
He sees the broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index at 1700 to 1800, which would be up 27 percent.
Acampora said he expects tech stocks to surge even higher than blue chips. He predicted the Nasdaq could jump to 4,800 to 5,000. The milestone 5,000 mark is 37 percent above Monday's close.
The three major U.S. stock averages have racked up gains of roughly 20 percent for an unprecedented four years running and seem close to doing so again in 1999. For the year so far, the Dow is up 21 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is up 15 percent, and the Nasdaq has surged 72 percent.
Acampora said he does not think the narrow ''breadth'' that has been plaguing the market will be a serious obstacle to gains for the indexes in 2000. Many analysts who follow this indicator, which monitors the ratio of advancing stocks to decliners, turned bearish and have been gnashing their teeth since they missed November's fat market gains.
He said a similar deterioration occurred in the bull market he dated from 1949 to 1966. ''It appears that major long-term bull markets do not need to witness new highs in breadth to confirm their existence,'' he wrote in a report.
However, the narrowness does mean that investors must carefully choose their stocks, since the gains might not be widespread.
''The forecast ... might not be a smooth ride -- inflationary concern will likely rear its ugly head,'' he wrote. He said interest rates were not yet threatening to burst out of their range, but that a possible upside breakout from their recent trading range could take the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond to 6.75 percent in 2000.
Acampora believes the market could correct downward from 5 to 10 percent but despite this, a ''super bull market'' is in place, led by technology stocks.
Acampora is a technical analyst, meaning he uses charts of past stock
performance for the most part, and not fundamentals such as sales or profits, to make his forecasts.
Acampora has been bullish and correct on the market since June 1995, earning himself a red 1962 Corvette from Prudential. But his reputation skyrocketed with his June 1997 forecast that the Dow would hit 10,000 by the end of June 1998. With the Dow at roughly 7,700, it was considered an outrageously bullish call. The average crossed the milestone on March 16 and by April, was solidly above the line.
Among his top picks of stocks he says are currently making strong bases, readying for an upward move, were AT&T Corp. (NYSE:T - news), Compaq Computer Corp. (NYSE:CPQ - news), Dayton Hudson Corp. (NYSE:DH - news), PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE:PEP - news), ExciteAtHome Corp.
(NasdaqNM:ATHM - news) and Lincare Holdings Inc. (NasdaqNM:LNCR -
news) |
