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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone?

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To: Scott Rafe who wrote ()12/21/1999 3:11:00 PM
From: Jesse Livermore  Read Replies (1) of 11417
 
WAVX ANALYSIS for Successful Deployment
BY Jesse Livermore

Wave Systems spent $65 million dollars over 10 years developing a chip that meters digital content in a secure client side environment. In 1999 it shipped its first chips on Hauppauge's WinTheatre TV boards. The chip works as well as we hoped and the business model of micropayment for rent to own digital content became a reality.

The next task for the company is deploying the product in sufficient numbers to make it an industry standard. Early efforts were focused on PC-OEMs and that industry was rocked by the Intel privacy fiasco. The industry responded with the TCPA consortium. WAVX is intimately involved with the security specifications being written for products shipping in 2000. While the industry delayed our hopes for massive deployment in 99, it was for reasons that will ultimately lead to a more thorough deployment in 00.

While the PC-OEM deployment has been delayed, the company has not been idle. It has masterminded an end around strategy to deploy by creating WaveXpress, a 60% company owned customer for Embassy chips, targeting the installed base of television consumers converting to digital TV. Broadcasting networks and content providers undoubtedly will partner with WaveXpress in 1q 2000. This was a stroke of genius by WAVX executives.

Another path to massive deployment is focused in Europe with the Banking consortium led by CyberComm. CyberComm will pay WAVX for the right to sublicense Wave Systems smart card technology packaged with Embassy to various entities including smart card reader manufacturers.
CyberComm aims to saturate Europe on the shoulders of state mandate.
This is a huge coup for Wave Systems. Undoubtedly, the American bank card industry will join in as Wave Systems has the only level 5 security technology available.

Dongles, seldom mentioned in early 1999, are the key to rapid deployment. Existing PCs and televisions can be inexpensively upgraded to the new technology while the PC and TV OEMs get on board later in 2000.

I look forward to 2000 with great excitement as everything is falling into place in a manner that was unanticipated by longs or by shorts. Unfortunately for the shorts, who shorted 7 million shares of WAVX (as of 12/15/99 estimated), the solution to the rapid deployment problem has never looked more secure than it does at year end 1999.

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