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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Allen Benn who wrote (868)4/21/1997 2:12:00 PM
From: Mark Brophy   of 10309
 
It's not a bear market yet.

Here are my projections for Wind River earnings for the next 9 years:
Book
Year Value Earnings
1997 6.03 0.56
1998 6.59 0.74
1999 7.33 0.98
2000 8.31 1.29
2001 9.60 1.71
2002 11.31 2.26
2003 13.56 2.98
2004 16.55 3.94
2005 20.49 5.21

If you buy shares today, it will take you 9 years merely to break
even, assuming that 32% growth continues indefinitely. Very few
companies can sustain very high growth for a long time. Intel's
long-term growth rate is 30%, so buying Wind River today is a bet
that Wind River will grow faster than Intel has in the last 10
years. Even Intel got creamed 11 years ago in the DRAM market
that they invented, so that seems pretty optimistic.

Software companies are crashing because they were grossly overpriced.
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