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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 74.32+0.9%Jan 22 3:59 PM EST
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To: telecomguy who wrote (30535)12/21/1999 8:45:00 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
OK. I will do an expected value analysis of YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS. You said $2000 by 2003 if Cisco succeeds and $20 if they fail. $20 is about the same as -$80 from today's stock price ($20-104 rounded).

So if we give Cisco a 20% chance of succeeding and an 80% chance of failure, then our expected value of Cisco's stock price in 2003 is $336 ([.2*2000]-[.8*80]).

So according to your own figures a rational human being would buy Cisco RIGHT NOW because he/she can reasonably expect to triple their money by 2003.

Damned by your own words. LOL.
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