Perhaps. I've noticed days where, just before the announcement it's run way up then way down very rapidly. I think what is happening in such a situation is that the pit gets thin and they can. What happens is the weaker holders both Short and Long get Stopped out and then whatever happens it's off to the races with the fewest people, "Only the Strong", on board. Particularly rough on the E-Mini Traders.
But if there was that much volume from large players I think the market would have stayed up. It dropped right back down quickly to just 2 points off the earlier High. I think an argument might be made that that was the doing of the real large money, perhaps it was "pushed down to bring it up", to use an obscure phrase.
In other words, they were sidelined and when the news came out they Sold into the Rally and reversed to establish a position lower. Unfortunately we cannot check the Size on the spoo, but we can on the Mini. It really does not look unusual. I guess I could figure a way to post a graphic of it but if there were large Buy orders on the large contract we cannot tell from the small one.
Matter of fact, there wasn't even a ten-lot on the mini from 14:08:32 until 14:10:47.
Here you go, suddenly at 14:12 every large lot on the Mini was a Buy. It became very elastic right at that moment, with a trade at 44, then 44.75, then 44.50, 44.50 then 46, then 44.50 then 46....over and over again. Everything was hitting the tape at 46 in lots of high 20s and low 30s.
Maybe you have something there. I don't know though, I think it was probably a Stop Run gone berserk. If it was the Real Bucks I don't think it would have come right back the way it did. According to the Mini tape there was a boatload of Buying right at 14:12 though. Not much before. I don't know exactly when the announcement hit.
If the announcement hit at 14:12 that explains it. But I think I recall it hit at 14:13, like it usually does. Looking at the spoo though, it did not travel much between 14:10 and 14:12. It went bats on the bar at 14:12.
Well I'm obviously thinking out loud, so to speak. Tell me, how do you like that squawk box? I know people who like it primarily because they used to be on the floor and prefer to trade off the noise. Guys like that would have been all over the Buy side as soon as they heard that. |
