Bipin,
Sent some e-mail to James Cramer to help him understand Oracle.
Looks like it works.
Paul van Wijk wrote:
> James,
>
> As I mailed you last week I was impressed by your scale-story. Did some
> thinking on it the last few days. Have some new insights I want to share
> with
> you.
>
> I agree with you that labor will be the key to growth. Agree with you
> that
> everyone is fishing in the same pool of talent. But.......
>
> A few weeks ago we have seen the Oracle-Ford deal and the GM-Commerce
> One deal. It's a little bit like Y2K. We initially thought that it would
> take an
> enormous effort to fix the problems. What most people overlooked (me for
>
> example) is that there was another way out; just replace the stuff.
>
> Let's look at the Commerce One deal. Actually they do the same. Cut the
> crap,
> forget about the old rubbish, don't spent energy on convincing the
> people it's
> time for a change. The establishment or management never like change.
> Just start with a blank paper. So far nothing new. But within a few
> quarters
> the new supply chain will be finished. And what do you do when you have
> new shoes? Just throw away the old ones. In other words; massive
> layoffs.
> Not only at GM (and their suppliers), but it is also bad news for the
> system-integrators like EDS. The old systems will be thrown away so no
> more integration-business to do.
>
> Second, E-Business is about competitive strength. Ford & GM were the
> first
> movers. That gives them a competitive advantage. Already read articles
> that
> Ford deserves an 8 dollar higher stock-price (to which I agree). So what
> will
> be the next step? The other automotive players will also start moving
> their
> supply-chain to the web to close the gap. So another few rounds of
> massive
> layoffs. Is it likely that this only will happen in the automotive
> industry. No, it
> is not. What's good for Ford also works for...... pick your own Dow
> Jones
> stock and the answer is yes. Do these companies have ties with
> system-inte
> grators? Yes. Will these system-integrators see disappear their
> business. Yes!
>
> What do we do with that people??? Answer, the can work at small B2C or
> B2B
> players who desperately need people to grow.
>
> So the question is what will be first; the massive layoffs or the plunge
> of startup-
> companies because labor-shortage. We'll see.
>
> Another view at the scale-story is Oracle. Topline-growth by
> cost-cutting.
> I believe I made clear that Oracle sees an enormous wave of
> business-oppur-
> tunities (they have both the database, the business-software and the
> first mover
> advantage). There are a few thousand Ford-deals at the horizon. So
> although
> they have 40.000 employees it will be impossible for them to execute.
> Labor
> is the bottle-neck. By selling things through the web they decrease not
> only the
> costs but it also gives them free heads & hands to deal with new
> business.
> If they hadn't choosen this strategy they would have had an enormous
> problem
> to attract, train and pay new sales people. This would have slow their
> growth.
> By web-enabling their sales-people they removed this labor-barrier so
> they can
> grow at a faster pace. And to close the circle; because they also cut
> costs
> they are able to drop prices and attract new customers between the new
> startups.
>
> Bottomline; never, ever sell Oracle.
>
> With regards,
>
> Paul van Wijk
His reaction,
man you ar egood, thanks for thgs, printing it out and studying it
jjcsps
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