obviously yields of 6,45% don't yet suffice to trigger asset re-allocation. we have to ask, what level will?
Two or three years ago, the mkt pundits who follow such things used to say that 7% bond yield was seen as a key level that was dangerous for stocks. The nearer to 7% (and above, of course), the more dangerous. I recall seeing 6.7% and 6.8%, and in that area equities didn't used to make the sorts of daily gains that they make nowdays. Incredible that the NDX today alone was up 4.09% (in one day!), and the Naz was up 3.36%. These must be very close to percentage records.
All because of a FOMC meeting of which, to mkt pros, it was 99% unanimous as to the monetary outcome (no rate hike), and the majority view was proved right. And so this is cause for stock rallies in everything but the Trannies? Quite a generous reward for all, for all to be proved right.
Now the market gets to guess how much the Fed hikes on Feb 1st & 2nd: 1/4 or 1/2? Also, we'll have to be fearing those econ reports between now and then. Oh and of course the big non-event.
Also, at what point do fund managers start to get a jump on everyone else (i.e. lock in gains by selling)? I'm looking for a good entry point in puts with a Feb expiry. And on what index? OOTM NDX poots? OOTM MSH poots? Probably all a waste of money, but nevertheless, it would seem to be prudent to at least take a small position somewhere. |
