Laserdoc99 posted this yesterday afternoon on YAHOO. It is an excellent response to Kaiser_Yang who claims to be an Institutional investor with an analyst that is bearish on SNRS.
Joe
WHO ARE YOU GOING TO BELIEVE??
by: laserdoc99
12/21/99 5:14 pm
Msg: 16108 of 16126
Kaiser I have had my fill of analysts in the medical field. Honestly, nobody knows medicine like doctors. Please just take a sample of
the physicians on this board. It is simple enough to ask certain questions and gather insight into who has the appropriate medical
knowledge to clearly be an ophthalmologist. Also, please do not use the term real doctors, implying I am not one. For your information
(though I have never posted this before), I graduated at the top of my class at M.I.T. In addition to my medical degree from Duke I
have a Ph.D. in ocular physiology. I currently run a multi-location, multi-physician general ophthalmology practice in California. My
experiences with analysts covering the medical field includes the following:
(1) Sitting next to Jonathon Cohen (Smith-Barney's lead medical analyst)in October, 1995 at the VISX FDA panel meeting where he
had VISX (with a split-adjusted price of 4) listed as a hold and BEAM with a price of 50 listed as a strong buy. When BEAM eventually
dropped to 10 he changed his rating to a sell. Great analyst. (This is also the same person who set a split adjusted price target for
AMZN of 6.125). He is no longer employed at Smith Barney.
(2) In a one on one meeting with Volpe Welte's analyst (Dr. Jay Rosenbluth) in San Francisco in December of 1996 I was told
Physician's Resource Group (PRG)was a strong buy at a price of 35. I tried to explain to the analyst why he misunderstood
ophthalmologists and their incentives to work. He would not listen to me as he was also an MD (with no clinical real-life work
experience). PRG was essentially worthless in less than 6 months. I am sure he formulated his opinion by talking to
ophthalmologists.
(3) I met with Mike Ferris the CEO of Lasersight and was intrigued with his excimer. I then met with analysts who told me why I
should not buy Lasersight (LASE) in April of 98 when it was trading at 1.5. Thankfully, I did not listen and still bought a large number of
shares. Inside of 8 months the stock hit 20.
Kaiser, I belive your analyst does not like this stock. Actually, from my past experiences, this makes me feel much better. Some
people just do not get it.
Finally, I travel the country frequently as I am a co-owner in an Ambulatory Surgical Center development corporation. I meet with other
ophthalmologists and at times find they have very little understanding of LTK. I am surprised at this, but many physicians are too busy
in their every day practice to really follow unapproved procedures. I can tell you that their mouths drop at the thought of a 3 second
in-office correction for hyperopia. I can also see the wheels turning as to how many of these procedures they will do.
I can never guess what an FDA panel will do because of politics. I watched at the VISX panel meeting as the optometrists on the
panel did everything possible to block VISX's approval. What I can say without any reservation is: IF THIS PROCEDURE IS
APPROVED THE MARKET WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN ANY ANALYST HAS PREDICTED.
I think this will be another case where I am correct and the medical analyst, (whose real understanding of the business of medicine
could fit in a thimble) is wrong again. |
