Greenberg's Track record is Good
From Thestreet.com
Accountability* Herb's Semiannual Report Card
By Herb Greenberg
Senior Columnist
12/22/99 6:30 AM ET
Whew! Just got done grading myself and my sources, and I'm proud to say we hit the dean's list (or should that be editor's list?) again.
Oh, there were a few failures, and plenty of incompletes. In keeping with this column's tradition, let's get the bad news out of the way first.
Failures: Blockbuster (BBI:NYSE - news) never did buy Hollywood Entertainment (HLYW:Nasdaq - news), as this column speculated might happen. (So much for speculating on a takeover.) And remember Nvidia (NVDA:Nasdaq - news), the graphics-chip company? Wish I couldn't. An item here in June asked, "Will Nvidia be a big loser in the Diamond-S3 deal?" The answer, I can emphatically tell you, is no. (Wearing a dunce cap for that one.) And suggesting trouble at Whole Foods Market (WFMI:Nasdaq - news)? Wrong! (Straight to the principal's office.) Then there's U.S. Franchise Systems (USFS:Nasdaq - news), but I raked it, and its biggest fan, over this column's coals last month. And I deserve to be suspended for questioning whether Plexus (PLXS:Nasdaq - news), which assembles Coinstar's (CSTR:Nasdaq - news) machines, was headed down in the wake of a slowdown in biz at Coinstar. (So much for the "domino effect" approach to investing.)
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Incompletes, which means regardless of the stock price, fundamentals haven't been borne out one way or the other: The obvious ones include Ancor Communications (ANCR:Nasdaq - news), Cree Research (CREE:Nasdaq - news), Scient (SCNT:Nasdaq - news), Diamond Technology Partners (DTPI:Nasdaq - news) and Lernout & Hauspie (LHSP:Nasdaq - news). (I debated giving short-seller Marc Cohodes of Rocker Partners an F for Lernout, but the stock has gone straight up despite a continuous stream of earnings estimate cuts by analysts, and besides, he's already gotten failing marks earlier this year for Microchip Technology (MCHP:Nasdaq - news).)
Other incompletes go to Banc of America Securities analyst Bill Steele for his warnings on a subtle deterioration in fundamentals at Colgate-Palmolive (CL:NYSE - news), and to the shorts who raised similar concerns about Estee Lauder (EL:NYSE - news). Also an incomplete to short-sellers who were short Premier Parks (PKS:NYSE - news) (it's down, but let's give it another season to see if the critics' story is borne out) and to those masochistic enough to question SFX Entertainment (SFX:NYSE - news) and its brainy CEO, Robert F.X. Sillerman. Ditto to those whose questions about MTI Technology (MTIC:Nasdaq - news) led to a recent "Oh, what a tangled web we weave!" item, and those who went public with their concerns for MedImmune (MEDI:Nasdaq - news).
Pixar (PIXR:Nasdaq - news), my guess, will be a perennial incomplete; it's so hard to bet against Steve Jobs, whose genius you can't help admire and respect despite his smug personality. (So what if his NeXT system was a bust!) And let's not forget that wacky incomplete pair -- IDT (IDTC:Nasdaq - news) and Net2Phone (NTOP:Nasdaq - news) -- both still making me look foolish (no, not Motley Foolish).
The most controversial incomplete goes to Jeff Matthews of Ram Partners, one of this column's regular sources, despite his compelling comments here regarding Amazon.com's (AMZN:Nasdaq - news) biz model and why he believes it is failing. (His comments were directed at the business, not the stock. Says he wouldn't change a word today. Time will tell. Incomplete.) Equally incomplete and equally gutsy (for publicly bashing a giant) was Don Luskin of metamarkets.com for his short-sale recommendation of AT&T (T:NYSE - news).
As for A's, the list is long (if he doesn't say so himself): First, to the headmaster's list for my anonymous source who tipped this column to the reasons he was long Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq - news) and Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - news) when they were much lower. And high honors to Banc of America Securities analyst David Goldman for his excellent and gutsy call on Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE:NYSE - news).
A's also go to those who forwarded info on Action Performance (ACTN:Nasdaq - news) (which has crashed), TCI Satellite Entertainment (TSATA:OTC BB - news) (which has soared) and Transaction Systems Architects (TSAI:Nasdaq - news), which hasn't transacted as well as expected. (Could be argued that Transaction Systems Architects is an incomplete, but its recent news and lack of response to this column doesn't bode well.)
Matthews, mentioned earlier, gets high marks for his negative call last year on Federal-Mogul (FMO:NYSE - news), which suffered a mini blowup in time for the last semiannual report card but wasn't included; it then blew up again in October, worthy of an A-plus. Top honors also go to the short-sellers (you know who you are) who aided in this column's comments last May that asked whether the bears would finally get it right about Conseco (CNC:NYSE - news) -- they did -- and to John Woodberry of Minute Man Capital Management for his prescient call here on Satyam Infoway (SIFY:Nasdaq - news), which nobody knew existed before he mentioned it here. (It has almost tripled since then; pretty much what he expected.)
Also an honors A to the money manager who first alerted me to the underlying value of Seagate Technology (SEG:NYSE - news) (back when its stock was much lower), and, as always, another A to Connecticut money manger Scott Turkel, this time for his table-pounding comments on TSI International Software (TSFW:Nasdaq - news), which has zoomed.
And on the A list: the shorts who alerted this column to troubles at Just for Feet (FEETQ:Nasdaq - news), which filed for bankruptcy, and to those who alerted me to the questionable fundamentals of C3, which makes fake diamonds and has since changed its name to Charles & Colvard (CTHR:Nasdaq - news).
Finally, incompletes from the last report card that get a final grade: A to Cohodes' partner, David Rocker, for his warnings on Stewart Enterprises (STEI:Nasdaq - news), the cemetery and mortuary company, whose stock has been on its own deathbed lately; to the shorts who alerted me to Sabratek (SBTK:OTC BB - news), which has filed for bankruptcy; to the shorts who had mentioned Pre-Paid Legal Services (PPD:NYSE - news), which recently seemed confounded at the decline in its stock; to the several shorts who alerted me to CHS Electronics (HS:NYSE - news), which has imploded (both the company and its stock); and to those who raised issues with Hibbett Sporting Goods (HIBB:Nasdaq - news), which isn't far from its 52-week low.
I'm sure I've missed a few -- if so, pass them on and I'll deal with them when this column returns in early January.
Folks, one final note: Thanks to my many sources for providing information to this column. Thanks to my readers for taking the time to stop by every day. Thanks for all of the emails. Very sorry many of you have never received a response other than my automatic (and, I know, annoying) "boinnggg." (You can guess what my new millennium resolution will be!) And thanks to my assistant, Mark Martinez, for his sharp eye, fabulous research and for making my life easier and the quality of this column higher.
Have a very happy holiday and a marvelous millennium.
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