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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: marcher who wrote (35799)	12/22/1999 5:38:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Marc, the bearish camp generally pins it's hopes on the Fed withdrawing the excess liquidity after January 1. however, they are mistaken. it won't happen. on the contrary, i expect the liquidity tap to be wide open until either a)the bond market collapses or b)the dollar collapses or c) inflation reaches an annualized 6-8% in terms of the CPI in spite of the statistical wizardry performed by the government, or a combination of those possibilities. the bubble has inflated too much...if there is even a slight contraction in the money supply growth rate it could quickly pop. never ever will the powers-that-be allow that to happen in an election year. the Fed will continue to raise the Fed funds rate by the usual completely ineffectual 25 bp's every three months and supply all the liquidity that's required through the back door. just imo of course... regards, hb

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