<#4--can't comment on the Chinese market. I think anyone that does is purely speculating. I will believe that CDMA is being deployed there when I see the cash in the till. Until then, all chatter.>
I think it's a lot more than chatter. Irwin Jacobs is prudent and conservative, not given to wild expectations. That's my department. Irwin said that China is on hold [or words to that effect] and they have made no allowance for China in their 2000 plans. Which is not to say that won't change in a big hurry.
I've had first hand reports from somebody who was living in Beijing until last week. They said Beijing is full of CDMA, with ads and phones all over. Qualcomm phones! I'm cross-checking, but we do know there have been 'trial' networks in operation all year.
As investors, we have to be ahead of the game and correctly predict how many million CDMA handsets will be in China over the next 5 years. I reckon heaps and heaps. Taking a guess, maybe 300m in 5 years, with HDR on tap. When CDMA arrives in WWeb mode, and GSM is being overlaid, it will be with stunning speed. CDMA benefits are not minor benefits - the CDMA capacity and device functionality advantages are huge and increasingly superior to GSM and 3G GSM efforts.
Look here: sina.com and realize that people who can understand those silly squiggles are numerous and increasingly well-off [as long as they don't get too serious with their stupid ideas about taking over Taiwan]. They'll be wanting WWeb and lots of it. Actually, they already HAVE got Taiwan. Also chunks of NZ, Australia, and even the odd house on the banks of the valley where Qualcomm stadium is.
If Kyocera already has manufacturing in China, I guess they can easily expand that to include CDMA. It seems that I got all my wishes met. I like that!
So, Q! investors should bet now that China will become a huge CDMA customer. It's too late when the money's in the till.
Mqurice
PS: Fun to see Q! reach over $1000 in 'old money' compared with this time last year still being in the 'natural home in the 40s'. |
