Morning Chuzz,..Re:.Only a fool would contend that the stellar rise in the stock price will persist indefinitely.
Good post Chuzz. If we use IDC numbers, the US market for PCs is expected to grow at 19.5% rate for the year 2000 and Dell already has 17.8% of that market so there's not a lot of growth remaining for that market before Dell will be growing at the same rate of the overall market. Not sure why this concept is foreign to some folks? <g> Also, not sure of the accuracy of IDC forecasts; however, since it seems to be their primary business, looks like that's the metric everyone uses. <g>
Also, it would be nice if we could get the figures on server projected growth and rankings.
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IDC Forecasts Healthy Worldwide Q4 1999 PC Demand with 17% Unit Growth over Q4 1998
Consumer Demand Offsets Quake and Y2K
December 7, 1999 - Unit volume in the worldwide PC market this quarter is expected to grow 17% year-over-year, according to data released today by International Data Corporation (IDC). With the seasonally strong fourth quarter in full swing, PC shipments are expected to rise 15.8% from Q3 1999.
Despite earlier concerns about the impact of the Taiwan earthquake and a slowdown in corporate purchases because of Y2K, IDC's new Q4 growth forecast of 17% represents a minimal reduction of earlier projections of 20%.
"The availability of graphic chips, chipsets, and memory has tightened due to the quake, which IDC believes has put some constraint on PC supply," said John Brown, research director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "But a strong, year-on-year global Q4 consumer PC growth rate of 25.7% will keep global PC demand high."
The end of the century comes to a close with a bang, as 1999 will post the highest growth since the introduction of Windows 95. A robust global consumer market, the potent combination of the Internet and ever-cheaper PCs, and a major rebound in the Asian PC market will drive projected 1999/98 unit growth of 22.6%. For next year, IDC projects unit volume growth of 18.3% over 1999 as commercial demand picks up, consumer demand stays strong, and the shortages of LCD panels dissipate.
The biggest geographic rebound story of the year centered on Japan, which has exhibited 30% or higher growth over the first three quarters of the year. This quarter Japan is projected to post 30% growth over the year-earlier period. The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) region will also show strong demand as price erosion, low PC penetration rates, and the untapped small and medium business market drive PC sales in the quarter.
In the United States, IDC expects Q4 growth to reach 12.9% due to a strong year-earlier quarter, PC supply issues related to the Taiwan earthquake, and some dampening in corporate demand due to Y2K issues. For total year 1999, the United States is expected to show growth of 23.5% over 1998. Growth for 2000 is projected at a still-healthy 19.5%.
In Western Europe, Q4 year-over-year unit growth is pegged at 14.1%, with sequential volumes up a very robust and typical 55% as retail competition and Internet demand will drive consumer sales.
Vendors
IDC believes the key to vendor growth this quarter is related to strategic alignment with growing consumer and small business segments. In addition, positioning in the Western Europe, U.S., and Asia/Pacific markets will be important. Finally, solid Internet strategies and the ability to deliver portable PCs in volume will also be keys to growth. Vendors that appear to have the "right stuff" for growth this quarter are Dell, Gateway, Hewlett-Packard, and Apple.
Table 1
Top 5 Vendors, U.S. PC Shipments, Third Quarter 1999
(Thousands of Units)
Q3 1999 Q3 1999 Market Q3 1998 Market Growth
Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 1999/98
1 Dell 2,119 17.8% 1,340 14.1% 58%
2 Compaq 1,802 15.2% 1,502 15.8% 20%
3 Gateway 1,081 9.1% 781 8.2% 39%
4 Hewlett-Packard 985 8.3% 809 8.5% 22%
5 IBM 920 7.8% 869 9.1% 6%
Others 4,945 41.7% 4,221 44.3% 17%
All Vendors 11,854 100.0% 9,521 100.0% 25%
,
Shipments are branded factory shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.
Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods.
Data for Compaq shipments include Digital Equipment shipments; data for Acer includes Texas Instruments.
Source: International Data Corporation, 1999
Table 2
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Third Quarter 1999
(Thousands of Units)
Q3 1999 Q3 1999 Market Q3 1998 Market Growth
Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 1999/98
1 Compaq 3,865 13.7% 3,195 14.2% 21%
2 Dell 3,250 11.5% 2,033 9.1% 60%
3 IBM 2,262 8.0% 2,025 9.0% 12%
4 Hewlett-Packard 1,863 6.6% 1,481 6.6% 26%
5 NEC/PB NEC 1,447 5.1% 1,457 6.5% -1%
Others 15,467 54.9% 12,263 54.6% 26%
All Vendors 28,156 100.0% 22,454 100.0% 25%
Shipments are branded factory shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.
Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods.
Data for NEC/PBNEC includes shipments for Packard Bell, NEC, NEC Japan, NEC China, and ZDS.
Data for Compaq shipments include Digital Equipment shipments; Data for Acer includes Texas Instruments.
Source: International Data Corporation, 1999
For more information about IDC, click here.
IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT media, research, and exposition company.
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idc.com
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Happy Holidays and best wishes for the New Year to you and yours,
Lee |
