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Biotech / Medical : NPSP NPS Pharmaceutical
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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (43)12/23/1999 12:22:00 PM
From: biowa  Read Replies (1) of 363
 
Rick,

<<He must have warm and fuzzies about the Amgen trial>>

I've heard recent rumors that that may be the case. AMGN has been in PII trials for secondary HPT since 2Q98 and primary HPT since 3Q98 with the second-generation candidate; seems they should be due to wrap soon.

At the risk of sounding like a cheerleader, even at $7 there is huge upside over the next year. 2000 could be a big news year, especially in clinical progress. IMO, we could see:

HPT (secondary & primary) PII results

Osteoprosis ALX 1-11 PIII trial start (announced for 2Q00)

GI (short bowel syndrome) ALX 0600 PII results

Epilepsy (& perhaps bipolar) NPS 1776 additional PI results, partner and perhaps PII start

Stroke (& perhaps trauma) NPS 1506 perhaps partner and PII start?

Dementia ALE 26015 additional PI results and perhaps PII start

Migraine ALX 0646 perhaps PII start

AND on my christmas wish list:

Osteoporosis (w/ SKB) a calcilytic candidate and IND (pure spec.)

None of this is endorsed by NPSP or Allelix (other than ALX 1-11 PIII), and is purely speculation. With their announced annual burn rate goal of $10-12 million, unless some of the unpartnered programs are partnered I don't see how they will all progress. The status of 1506 in particular seems to be an uncertainty. In other words - for lurkers - this is a road map, DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE.

And of course, there are several analysts on the tube today calling for a market correction of 20% in mid-January.

Here's to a Happy NPSP year,
biowa
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