Kyros, I've found your posts very helpful in the past, and I respect your informing the board of your thoughts and position before the fact -- unlike others.
The single persuasive argument to hold COMS is to get PALM -- you've argued this many times. COMS cap is now $15B. You've argued that PALM may well be $15B or more by itself. When COMS was 30, I thought your estimates were high, but COMS was still a good buy. When the MOT, NOKIA, AOL buy in prices PALM privatelely at $5B, I thought you were right the whole time -- still do.
You only have to wait two months -- you really think things are going to change that much. The Palm IPO doesn't have to go bananas, a la Sycamore, et al. It's going to be priced well north of $5B, so a modest rise will carry COMS with it. It doesn't have to go ballistic. If it doubles from $7.5 B, then COMS will go over 60.
Admittedly, COMS quarter was disappointing, and the guidance was worse. But a positive surprise would have been gravy. The leftover COMS still will have sales north of $5B and reasonably positive earnings. At $7.5B the leftover COMS will sell at only 1.5x sales and <30x earnings.
It's hard to imagine COMS without PALM getting much worse than the guidance (which also signalled growth in Q4 and very positive asset management).
Just curious about your change of heart. There are other approaches than dumping -- sell covered calls, buy put protection against a market collapse, etc. |
