I have been one of the most boring proponent of never short a market making new highs and the point of 1442 or 1428 on SPZ, that unless these points are taken out on two closing basis we will not see the 85% of the oversold rallying. Today in my opinion after a long wait and two closes above 1442, we are seeing that new leg has started that is giving life to the laggards like DRG's, look at this chart of DOW from Oct 98 we had this rally to April, DOW was in consolidation from May to Dec, the rally started yesterday if DOW breaks the old highs after two closes will lead us on footsteps of what we saw between Jan99 to April 99,
quote.yahoo.com^DJI&d=2ym
that is a 2000 point move what I can make of this move is at-least a 3000 point move but I would ideally like NDX to under perform, once that start happening we will see bond yields falling, the danger of NDX and DOW rally is not healthy the good things will happen for this oversold market(gg) read my recent post to FJV (Franco)when DOW and SP00H starts outperforming Comp..
I think of plan in my mind a road map for market, my objectives of breaking this 1442 resistance AND accompanying projected rally only reinforces my oft stated goal that knowing markets is through very simple instruments, to look for a dip when DRG, Transportation, BKX were going through a triple dip correction as Comp made great new highs was oversimplification, the concept of NHNL lays in dust as broad market rally comes into play now the new highs will exceed the lows the question of bad breath may finally be resolved as market is given a thorough rinse with strong non-inflationary GDP figures, the IIX and Dot is mildly lower as market speculators look for the broad market performers so far overlooked in tech frenzy.. Hopefully, RUT starts running from here.. it is theoretically one thing to forecast but to actually see it happening as certain mile stones are taken out only armed with simple tools forces me to highlight this point on this very special thread. Small little things, very ordinary and very simple have given me a broad market birds eye view so good that I think I am 6/6 but the rim glasses keep reminding me of my frailties and short sightedness, that keeps me on guard all the time..
On this great occasion as we close one of the finest years of this thread, I want to thank the great posters on this thread and great lurkers, all of you who have made this thread a unique experience for me. A thread that has a motto, post only if you trade and maintains integrity and discipline of highest order with minimum of hi- bi good bye posts. I wish you, your families your children a happiest Merry Christmas and a great millenium celebration, my family and ?Idea tribe? joins me to say ?Happy Christmas to all and happy new year 2000.
I look back at last four years and on this solemn occasion want to share with you one small secret and that is the only thing that kept me going was Idea is my daily strategy, since I trade I cannot miss it and since I trade more often than not on the right side of the market befriending the trend I keep my thread green and hot every day with what I and my few fellow posters consider worthwhile for our little investment universe. Last but not least 'Idea' owes its life and survival despite of its small number of posts to the need of strategy, without my written strategy and simple definition of the market course every day of my life I just don?t have a road map of the market so as to navigate my investments in these treacherous murky waters where until last week I was waiting for that break of 1398 on SP00H and making money from my long puts and now exactly opposite, that is what you call as ?secular nature of trader believes.
Once again merry Christmas and happy new year.. |
