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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 153.96+0.7%3:59 PM EST
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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (7597)12/23/1999 2:31:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) of 9256
 
Mark,

Of course you are correct that new applications are sprouting for flash all the time. The growth in disk storage is the same old stuff, just more of it.

I wonder if you can clear one point. Regarding disk storage in routers. Is that just for holding routing addresses (that do not change very often) ? As far as I know writing speed on flash is still in the many milli-sec range. So flash is not suitable for frequent writing.

However one reason I am not totally despairing on disk drives is that the technology (heads, actuators, channels, media, etc...) is getting more sophisticated all the time. This will have 2 effects
1- hasten the departure of less up-to-date vendors.
2- make entry difficult for new players.

Both these items will restrict supply, while demand keeps going up. I read somewhere that 30 disk drive vendors have left the business in the last couple of years. I don't know this as fact but my guess is that the technology left them behind.

The assumption I am making is that the disk drive demand is getting close to the supply. The question is when will they balance? I wish I knew. The only thing I can say is that retail disk prices are holding steady. Is that good enough to restore profits ? Today, the stock market's answer is no.
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