But that is just the beginning. Kyocera is going to be a big factor in the Japanese cdma market, which will probably grow by an increment of 10 million units next year. The 70% figure for ASIC sourcing in the contract is just a minimum - Q will get more as KYO's old models are phased out. I don't know how many cdma phones KYO will sell outside of North America next year, but I would be willing to bet it is comparable or actually MORE than Nokia WORLDWIDE. So who would we rather have that ASIC contract with in year 2000?
I agree completely which is why I said more than 2 months ago that the deal would not go to NOK and we would be much more likely someone in Japan or China. The three way Japanese phone merger, and KYO's heavy equity position in it, is a huge plus for CDMA2000 vs WCDMA. Though both would pay equal royalties, a single standard is much better for consumers. Simplicity will keep costs low and energy can be focused on other areas, like additional features, which will advance faster. Tero might have been wrong about CDMA, but he wasn't wrong in all the benefits that a single standard across Europe bought them. NOK has probably already gotten most of the benefits of scale from GSM, but for CDMA we're just getting started.
Moving forward everyone seems not to hear Irwin when he keeps
emphatically (for IJ) repeating that he thinks we will see very, very
rapid deployment of 1X by all existing cdma operators as soon as it is
commercially available. And lo and behold this morning's press release
announces the 1x MSM and CSM will sample starting next month. Last
night IJ told us that it is possible that the first commercial
deployment could be in place by the end of next year. Now, will NOK
have a 1X chipset ready and designed into their phones by this time next year? Will they want to be seen as the cheapo, less-than-full-featured, also-ran, competitor in North America? Prediction - By 2001 they will be buying Q chipsets, so we will have NOK and KYO by then. If HDR then gets implemented by select carriers during late 01 and into 02, who do you think is going to be supplying the chips to NOK's high end phones? Does Kyocera vs. NOK provide an edge when China starts full scale deployment? I don't know, but I bet Irwin does and that he took that into consideration.
I think you are right on the money here. CDMA is on a roll and has enough momentum not to be stoppable. Unless the Europeans show something very soon to prove that their vaunted EDGE actually works in the real world, carriers will chose CDMA as a proven economical path to 3G.
The discussion I'd like to see us have is How does Europe move from GSM to CDMA2000? I think the biggest hurdle is the CDMA/GSM handset.
I have many questions: Does a 2 ASIC phone make any sense or must it be one? (my guess=1, but not sure). Do either LSI or Intel have licenses for GSM ASICs, thereby putting them ahead of Q in this race? Does NOK make their GSM ASICs, does ERICY? What companies manufacture GSM ASICs? Does GSM even need an ASIC, can it be done in a DSP? What are the other issues in making such a phone once the IPR issues have been resolved? etc. |
