1.) Linux will become the dominant OS in 2000.
Linux has a promising future; however, the idea that it would become "dominant" in 2000 is absurd, and this kind of thinking is what drives the wild stock price fluctuations we've seen of late.
Corporate users are still lacking any serious committment to Linux; substantial applications for Linux are still unavailable; I'm not sure business users are even very interested in upgrading to W2K, let alone tackling the transition from Windows to Linux. Home users are really after the gee-whiz stuff in W98, and aren't ABOUT to move to Linux in large numbers until they can see some of the MM crap they're accustomed to. Bottom line: The Linux user base is concentrated today amongst hobbiests and commercial developers who haven't really started to develop for the platform in serious numbers (no tools, remember?)
At best, by the end of 2000 we'll start to see some corporate defections in small but noticable numbers. More likely, sometime in 2001 or beyond. The transition from Windows to Linux is not like moving from W95 to W98 or W3.x to NT. They are just different kinds of moves, and are not going to be taken that lightly.
As I have espoused here in years past, these changes just don't happen this quickly. Java is a perfect example; three years ago you had people asserting that Java would replace ALL OTHER LANGUAGES (or environments, whatever<g>) within 18 months. People BELIEVED that crap! Java has come along, but there is still certainly a great deal of c++, COBOL, & other development going on. It could easily be 5-7 years before RHAT show significant profits (assuming Linux isn't taken away from them by someone else before the market develops--who knows, it could even be MSFT).
I recommend everyone just sit back, take a couple of deep breaths, and let cool heads prevail... |
