Hi drake,
the only thing that fascinates me more than a beautiful woman, is that unrelenting omnipresent analyst expounding on the virtues of value in todays market. One day these people are going to get it but it is going to be too late. Don't get me wrong, there is a time and place for everything but for now it is NOT value. The late twenties and early thirties have come to be known as the era of lost fortunes. Mark my word the initial era of the millennium will be known for the same, but for a different reason, the inability of the Graybeards and others to recognize what type of MARKET we are in. So trying to find VALUE in whatever form whether it be PE, BOOK VALUE, FLOAT etc. will prove to be their undoing. Now let me ask you, assuming the markets were absolute, in what type of market would a company with a great deal of BOOK VALUE appear attractive?, yes, a market of LIQUIDATION. Dell would not fare well in a market such as this but General Motors would. How about scarcity, CMRC would do better than MSFT, because their float is about 3 million. In a market based solely on PE's, maybe the Utilities. So you see, value in and of itself means very little until what? UNTIL YOU DETERMINE WHAT KIND OF MARKET YOU ARE IN, and that determination is easy unless you have blinders on like most of the establishment today. This supposedly dangerous and intoxicating valueless market could not be better illustrated than the fact that 66% of the stocks in the DOW are down for the year. That also means that most VALUE funds are probably down for the year at a time when the DOW and NAZ are at record levels. So that alone should tell you we are not in a VALUE market. We are in a very distinct market where the BB's are looking to put more money NOT in less stocks but fewer certain stocks. Sure this will change one day but that is a moot point at the present. I have said it before, the BB's have felt, smelled and played with technology unlike our parents who were afraid of even an ATM, and their NON-LINEAR thinking does not lend itself to being cajoled or pressured into investing in VALUE funds or stocks that ironically present no value. What a lot of people do not understand is that the House's have funds that must report every three months and you are kidding yourself if you do not think they have to bolster those losses by touting even know losers because they are so far in the red. This is one reason to never listen to any analyst on T.V. or radio unless it is ABBY or someone of her stature, the rest just have a self serving agenda, Abby does to, just as the Fed. does but it is much more impactful. So do not worry about QCOM as it relates to value, value comes in many forms and QCOM's value is spelled FUTURE!
We should see a headfake next Monday on the Q with the MM's working off of last weeks fear and a final attempt in shaking out the weak hands and then a gradual strengthening as we go through the week ending up at least 100 pts higher.
After the split, I see about a 15% sell off from the post split price then a upturn with us getting to about 200 post split by April.
Voltaire |
