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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Apollo who wrote (11397)12/26/1999 12:28:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (10) of 54805
 
*** THE Y2K GORILLA & KING INDEX PROJECT ***

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas holiday and are ready to go back to work! We agreed to rework the GKI between now and the end of the year, so here is the opening salvo.

BACKGROUND: I introduced the GKI a few weeks after the thread began. It was intended as a shopping list of Gorillas, Kings, and Princes with Attitude that our small gang of hunters had agreed on. Since the orientation of the thread is Emerged Gorillas and Royalty, we set a minimum market cap of $10B for inclusion in the Index. Each component was added with equal weighting based on an investment of a $10,000 at the close of the first day of trading in 1999 (an awkward decision on my part, since it put us out of synch with the universal method of computing returns based on the 1998 closing price).

I believe our Y2K GKI should reflects the actual investing decisions of the Gorilla Hunters after a year of hard work in refining our selection skills, and propose the following format:

1. Only consensus Gorillas and Kings should be included.
2. The market cap criterion of $10B should be retained. Those will smaller caps should be held in Justin's Watch & Wait Portfolio.
3. Only companies that are widely held (>10%) by the Gorilla Hunters should be considered for the GKI. Others should be held in Justin's Watch & Wait Portfolio.
4. The GKI should be a weighted index, reflecting the weighting in our "for real" portfolios, and we will use the closing price on 12/31/99 to determine our cost bases.

Fortunately, we will be able to build in the excellent efforts of Sir Apollo if the elect this approach (whew!). I've taken the liberty of "borrowing" his listing of widely held companies, and added a bit of data. The following were among the widely held that met proposed rule #3: 


         % Holding   Mkt. Cap	Classification   Assignment
QCOM	     96%      $77B	Gorilla             GKI
GMST	     58%      $15B	Gorilla             GKI 
JDSU	     52%      $52B	King                GKI
CSCO	     49%      $357B	Gorilla             GKI
EMC	     34%      $103B	King                GKI
INTC	     21%      $278B	Gorilla             GKI
MSFT	     21%      $608B	Gorilla             GKI
NTAP	     20%      $13B	King                GKI
CREE	     18%      $2B	TBD                 W&W 
AOL	     17%      $182B	Godzilla            N/A
LU	     15%      $245B	King                GKI
GBLX	     13%      $41B	TBD                 TBD  
CMGI	     13%      $33B	Godzilla            N/A 
SEBL	     13%      $16B	Gorilla             GKI 
SUNW	     13%      $118B	King                GKI
DELL	     11%      $135B	Prince              N/A 
TLAB	     10%      $27B	TBD                 TBD

That would give us 11 GKI selections and two possibilities that need discussion (tlab and gblx).

I'll look forward to your feedback.

uf
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