Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (57387)	12/26/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Douglas, this DOE electricity market trend study supports your contentions about NG usage trends. IMO it also supports the, just posted, National Petroleum Council study on NG. US GDP growth now at 4 -5%, and going higher this qtr. hmmmmmm. ----------------------------------------------------------- eia.doe.gov Stronger Economic Growth Would Require More Generating Capacity From 1997 to 2020, the annual average growth rate for GDP ranges between 2.6 and 1.5 percent in the high and low economic growth cases, respectively. The difference of a percentage point in the economic growth rate leads to a 17-percent change in electricity demand in 2020, with a corresponding difference of 124 gigawatts of new capacity required in the high and low economic growth cases. Utilities are expected to retire between 19 and 20 percent of their current generating capacity (equivalent to 460 to 505 300-megawatt generating plants) by 2020 as the result of increased operating costs for aging plants. Most of the new capacity needed in the high economic growth case is expected to consist of natural-gas-fired plants?both turbine and combined-cycle units?which make up almost 60 percent of the projected new capacity in the high growth case. The stronger growth also stimulates additions of coal-fired plants, particularly in the later years, when higher natural gas prices make new coal-fired facilities more attractive economically (Figure 78). eia.doe.gov

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