Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (2243)	12/26/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (2) of 3543

Dale Knowing how wedded most economists and stock market analysts are to old models, I really don't think they have a clue what will happen or what to do about it now or later. I'm afraid that the term model gets loosly thrown around without enough description of what is being refered to. The old financial model of providing a return to shareholders is independant of the business. As we speak the jury is out as to who will win or loose and of the winners how they will be vulnerable to future change and attack by newcommers. A indisputable fact is each and every business, IPO, spin etc will ultimately be valued in this way....some sooner than others Without a doubt the internet is a significant impact. But its a bit naive to assume who the winners will be (consumers, businesses who utilize the "cost benifits", infrastructure providers or internut centric businesses). In the long view, I think the closest analogy is with the railroads of yesteryear in that they revolutionalized transportation of people and goods, much the way the internet is doing with information. We can draw analogies between these industries, however a difference with the internet is the speed of change, amount of capital being thrown into these businesses and low barriers to entry. I for one am not a buy and hold investor of internet centric businesses, simply because I view it as too risky.......despite that view, I do/have invested in them both long and short from a event driven or based on my perspective of their near term outlook. Mad2

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