cow; I figure one more week of down or sideways trading for AOL ad then straight up. Watcha think? cb
Disclaimer; I am not qualified to make a professional opinion but since you asked a fellow ole redneck...here goes nuttin!
Longterm--Strong buy
I will not pretend to know more than the qualified anal-ysts that have rated AOL a StrongBuy (something like 25 strong /8 buy /1 hold). Case's 800 pound gorilla will not knuckle under to free isps or delays in broadband access. Getting on the web is one thing, getting to AOL content and friends is another. One day we (AOL) may have to offer free internet access if the model proves viable (still very much in doubt) but with continued strong growth in page hits through aol.com, compuserve, icq , mapquest, instant messaging, netscape, moviefone and other acquisitions we rule the eyeball count. I was concerned with Yahoo's free access isp(Bluelight) but have downloaded it and am no longer worried at all. What a piece of garbage (have actually never been successful in connecting to whatever they offer).Who would you like to place your advertising with? As they say, a whole lot of folks think AOL is the net. WE WILL PROSPER!
Short term...hold
My very limited knowledge of technical analysis and my perception of the public's current view of AOL stock leads me to believe that we are headed down to the $75 level. We should encounter strong support in that area. I don't know the change in institutional holdings of AOL now and a month ago but have noticed big lots being sold at daily highs lately. I don't have a clue whether this is just year-end adjusting of portfolios or a change in long term outlooks.
I think some of the recent selling is due to the frenzied buying of the "hot" stocks in the past two weeks. This trend has been noticeable on this very thread recently. Comments such as how come we aren't rocketing to the moon with CMGI, QCOM, CMRC, etc. Another short term concern is the possible market correction. I've read many predictions of a mid Jan. correction (self-fullfilling?). Even if our earnings are good and numbers are surprising to the upside, will we be able to take advantage of the good news?
Our tremendous growth over the past decade has led newbies (myself included) to have unreasonable expectations about the growth of AOL stock values. With over 2 billion shares now outstanding, this stock is not going to go up 5 points every day (Hope I'm wrong!).
To top it all off, if we have great news with T....nevermind
JMVHO
tc :-) |
