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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?
YHOO 52.580.0%Jun 26 5:00 PM EST
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To: Dale Baker who wrote (2251)12/26/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: Mad2  Read Replies (1) of 3543
 
Dale, I think its reasonable to assume a more traditional approach will begin to effect valuations when revenue growth prospects begin to slow. Currently we are in a sky is the limit phase, where growth cures all ills is applied to the question of earnings. The case for buy and hold is built on the growing use of the internet, which it is infered lead to growing revenues coupled with high operating leverage. The case for caution is predicated by the continuing changing landscape of the internet and the fact that this sector is growing increasingly dependent upon fresh capital (IPO proceeds) as compared to earnings for revenue.
It's been a interesting year and Mary Meeker earned her 15mil for her proclomation last year that 1999 would be the year of the internet. Yet last weeks interview in Barron's contained some interesting comments, such as 90% of internet companies being overvalued (attributed to Gardner of Motley Fools) and Meeker statement thatQ: We called you "Queen of the 'Net" in our cover story a year ago. How do you feel about that label?
A: I don't want to be the poster child for Internet stocks. I don't want to be associated with all of them.
Dale I infer from the entire interview that while there will be winners in the next year, they will outnumbered by the loosers, with gains being narrower and risks being greater.
2000 won't be a repeat of 1999 that's for sure and its too bad
Mad2
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