Hello All,
Just joining this thread, it seems to me (experienced about technology much more than the stock market) that Corel's downside is limited. They held single digit range when MS had them bleeding at the sockets and really no viable products in the market.
Now they are putting out a well received Distribution (yes repackaged Debian, I know, it being repackaged is IMO irrelevant) which is concentrating on virtually *every* area of weakness that stands in the way of Linux on the desktop.
- ease of install
- improved "control Panel"
- easier/more familiar file browsing
- "auto mounting" of CDs & floppies
- WINE for running Win applications on Linux (next release)
- improved sound support (CREAF agreement)
... this list is not exhaustive nor will it be exclusive (at least for long) but it is real.
They have an office suite, soon (next version) to be bundled with their distribution (I consider Corel Draw to be less important as the freeware program "The Gimp" is already almost the de-facto graphics standard on Linux, and ships by default) and whether u love it or hate it, it has greater name recognition than any other alternative (including Star Office).
And for those who put a lot of hope in Star Office/Sun consider this, Sun was the architect and guiding hand of Java and bears principle responsibility for it's lack of success in the market. How much of Corel's Word Perfect/Java failure was tied to Java's larger failure?
How well will Sun handle Star Office? If it's primary reason for free office suites is to leverage lured users into Star Portal running on Sun Servers how deep do u think it's penetration will be? The tech players & consumers alike have demonstrated a desire for choice, and I don't believe that beyond the short term this aligns with Sun's intentions.
So back to Corel, a company with a distinguishable distribution, a recognized office suite, and to small to hope to lock the market (e.g. safe) steps into the Linux whirlwind, what's going to happen?
If the whirlwind continues, I believe it will increase.
If this company can get it's products ported to Linux, a fourteen year old with a phone could do that.
If Cowpland/Corel can manage to not alienate the Linux Community and muddy this opportunity, remains to be seen.
If the barrier to running Win apps can be reduced, getting much closer.
Then it seems to me that Corel has a decent shot at profitable quarters and some multiple of their current stock price as a rightful share of this Net/Linux/overvaluation phenomena.
Certainly it seem to me that unless Linux dies Corel will not return to it's basement levels, as long as Linux continues to thrive this is Corels new low end.
...and if u don't think Linux is going to continue to expand, explosively, well that is a post for another day.
Thoughts Please.
mowa |
