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Technology Stocks : Semtech (Nasdaq:SMTC)
SMTC 71.99-4.4%3:59 PM EST

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To: John Morrison who wrote (958)12/27/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: Jeff Bond  Read Replies (1) of 1225
 
That must be AOL you're referring to?

:o)

I noticed something, and I think it's worth a comment. SMTC is an absolutely BEAUTIFUL as well as highly ACCURATE leading indicator for the industry group. Almost without fail, SMTC is first to falter, first to regain it's feet, and always first to rocket back up.

I mention this because as you mentioned earlier, it appears some investors are basing their investing decisions on the group indicies. Well, I think a better (and more accurate) strategy would be to anticipate the performance of the indicies (and better yet, other individual companies within the industry) on the performance of SMTC.

In part, I feel this is due to SMTC's position within the process of manufacturing; their technology goes into products very early game. But also, I feel this is because SMTC is a very powerful stock, and fund managers, institutions, and other large savvy investors make their buy/sell decisions (in general) much more intelligently and before the majority of individual investors.

This combination I feel makes SMTC the perfect leading indicator for the industry group as a whole. It just makes it tough for the individual investor, becasue there really is no accurate guage available to measure SMTC, except for the intelligence of the individual and his assorted tool of technical indicators. Thank goodness the process is made easy by the simple process of buying & holding ... uh, that and the pleasant consequence of constantly being forced to hunt for a bank with a bigger vault.

I'm sure it was AOL, right? Give me a hint if I'm wrong, but not too much of a hint :o)

Regards, JB
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