Cheeky,
Of course it's butt covering. But the very fact that he has taken such a controversial stance and maintains it has got to be extremely difficult for him, thus not done lightly.
And I have a few sources here in DC that indicate to me that overseas disruptions will occur and that the US govt is ill-prepared to stage any required relief operation in nations like Indonesia or Malaysia.
We saw what happened 3 years ago when Asia took a spill over Thailand's currency problems. I suspect any prolonged disruptions, or ones that create disruptions in supplying parts and supplies to US industries could recreate such an event again, leading to global recession (all over again). Please note that we are just recovering from a global recession, and were it not for the US, it could have been even deeper than it was.
I think this is the prevailing logic in Yardeni's theory and I believe it to be quite sound. Especially since there were no IT malfunctions evident during the onset of the Asian contagion, but merely a lack of financial confidence.
The bottom line is that much of the world, outside of the US and Europe, will be blindly entering into 2000, unsure of exactly how much disruption will occur, or whether it will show its effects immediately or over a prolonged period.
Regards,
Ron |
