I've never heard or read anything about "humanity being destroyed," though y2k mockers do like to mention things like "planes falling from the sky," etc. -- which I've also never heard predicted, by anyone.
Inventing, then mocking a "worst case" is a tired sophmoric debating trick. So is holding up a trivial example to trivialize an issue.
At the very least, we have a JIT economy, a bubble market priced FAR beyond "perfection," a nasty trade deficit, a negative savings rate, and a huge dependency on foreign oil. And a government that says that it's "99.9% fixed" despite no history of ever coming in on-time and under budget for projects far simpler than this one.
Then, of course, there's the embedded chips issue. Without going into a far-too-long explanation of all this, I'll merely relay a couple a true stories.
I had an interesting chat with the y2k head of a smaller regional electric utility here in Minnesota. I said: "Are you fixed and compliant?" He said "Yeah, but it wasn't easy! All the software is fixed and checked and back in production."
I said "What about embedded chips?"
"That was tough," he said. "We checked all the ones we could -- and replaced those that wouldn't have worked (quite a few). Those that we couldn't check -- a lot -- we simply replaced."
Now, I think that's pretty damn commendable..and I was impressed. I wonder how many other utilities and chemical plants and refineries, etc. took the same thorough approach to embedded chips?
I also spoke with a friend who was in charge of y2k remediation for a regional gas company. Smart guy; great programmer. (I'm a software guy in real life, so I know a few of these types...)
Again, all their software is now compliant and fixed. Billing will not be a problem!! Again, I said: "What about embedded chips in the pipelines to control valves and that kinda stuff?"
He said: "They don't know how many there are, and they don't know how to test them, so they're just ignoring them, and hoping that they'll work."
That, I guess, is the other side of the coin, huh?
When you read that companies have "contingency plans" that often merely means a "fix on failure" policy.
Engineers have what's called a "smoke test." Instead of trouble-shooting, you just plug it in and see if it works...or smokes.
We're about to have a largest smoke test in the history of mankind. I personally don't have a clue what will happen -- and the effects might not be well seen for days, weeks, or months...if there are significant effects at all.
All I know is that it should. be. interesting.
regards,
doug
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