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Gold/Mining/Energy : Buckey's Bottom Bounce Short Term Picks (CDN ONLY)
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To: Shaw who wrote (1482)12/28/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: Kevin Hamlin  Read Replies (1) of 5887
 
The reason I was looking at MEL as a good possible bouncer short term is the following:

1) Over a 90% drop from it's recent highs this past April-September. That in itself will cause a lot of people to throw it in the tax loss bin.

2) Bad news is already out. Revised financials for two quarters and a law suit from some peeved shareholders of a company that Merit bought with the shareholders getting Merit stock as part of the deal (oops!). Neither of these things is too pretty, but the market now has them already factored in. I don't see too much more downside news. If the shareprice itself didn't tempt people to throw Merit in the tax loss bin, revised earnings/possible law suit would, again driving the price down artificially lower.

3) The chart: Imho, this has the looks of tax loss selling. After the hard drop mid November (re: restated quarters), the stock settled down in the $1.00-$1.10 range. Since then it's just been a slow agonizing drift down (my read = tax loss) to the current levels (.60 cent range), which is again a significant percentage drop. It was interesting too that when the news hit of a possible suit by peeved investors of the company Merit bought, the downside effect was pretty minimal which was both surprising and encouraging to see i.e., that maybe the stock was really bottoming. No hard hit down...again, just the slow drift down of tax loss selling in progress.

So the possible upside from here? This remains to be seen. If the bad news in mid-Novemberput MEL down to settle the $1.00-$1.10 level, and tax loss pushed it to the mid .50's-.60 cent range, then possibly there is a very nice spread to recover to pre tax loss levels. I don't know if the rise back up will be fast enough to keep the daytrading adrenalin junkies happy <g!>, but imho the potential for the rise is certainly there. -And fine by me if the rise is spread out over the next week or so as I mix a little work with a lot of R & R. Of course if I have to, I'll grudgingly accept a quick bounce up too. <g!>

Best of the holiday season everyone.

Regards,

Kevin
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