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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 159.42-1.2%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ruffian who wrote (57404)12/29/1999 11:02:00 AM
From: R. Ramesh  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
Piecyk estimates by the end of the next decade 85% of all digital phones sold
will use CDMA technology. This assumption results in a royalty payments of
as much as $20 billion.

Assuming that we earn 20B (i.e., the difference between royalty
revenue to royalty profit is madeup by other business) by the end of
the decade (say 2009), the marketcap is likely to be

with PE of 20 0.6*20*20B 240B (0.6 for taxes)
with PE of 30 360B
with PE of 40 480B
with PE of 50 600B

So minimally we should triple from this point in a decade. While many
will not be happy with such a gain, I am quite happy to be holding Q
to tripple in 10yrs with abysmally low estimate (btw, that is about
12% gain compounded yearly).
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